Hello everyone
I publish this on the day that I heard that RFKJr has been appointed by Trump to be his Health Secretary. I know he has to be ratified but OMG is my first reaction.
However, as I was writing this I aimed to not speculate or look for disasters, but that appointment does say something about Trump’s Second Coming if RFKJr, a non-medical person, who has dived so very deep into alternative realities, is now given some power to dabble and indeed, lay waste to the public health of America.
I have also debated as to whether I should be writing about the American election at all, and nearly deleted this. I mean, who am I to do that? What do I know? I’m not American, I visited it once in 1999 and you could say, I am a know-nothing pinko liberal Limey having been called that on a cruise just before the 2016 election, when I had the temerity to say I liked Obama, to a very nice, Mid-American couple who I kind of provoked. Should I apologise for that? No, I’m not sorry, as it was such a fascinating experience to hear so many (in 2016) speaking of their admiration of Trump when in the British media we thought Trump was ridiculous and Clinton was a shoo-in.
But as a Brit and, as a European, I do have some thoughts. We will be affected by Trump, there’s no question of that, so I am speaking out. Also, my degree was International Relations, and that’s what we were taught to do – analyse nation-states.
So here goes. A Trump win – oh! And then, again. Of. Course. Because in my heart of hearts I always thought he would. I did have hope but being rational. It couldn’t have been anything else.
First of all, I am not going to dwell too much on the probable and likely disasters that might come about with Trump’s election. That’s all speculation, of things that might come to pass. I will look more closely when these ‘things’ or events occur but for the moment, I am focusing in on the why. Because in fact, the whys also relate to my country, the United Kingdom (the sovereign nation state) that is and not Great Britain (the island of England, Scotland and Wales).
And the whys are about a quest to understand rather than condemn millions and millions, and millions, of Americans who voted for Trump. For me it is always important to ask the why question. I felt that way after Brexit and I feel that way now.
I’m doing this because I’ve heard so many say – how could they? Who are these people who believe in this bloated orange criminal? They must be so .…. ….. ….. Fill in some pretty, damning words about these apparently, ‘incredibly misled’ and ‘wrong-headed’, and ‘probably, well, they would have to be, stupid people’.
All of them?
Look, Trump won not only the Electoral College (a very complicated part of US democracy that I can just about get my head around) he’s won the popular vote. That is amazing but also says something – what is this something?
So, why? And I say that we absolutely have to understand why. It is critical for the US that it understands, and it is important too for us here in the UK.
To begin with, I put a huge amount of blame on the Democratic party. Who knew that Biden was too old? Umm, ponders and thinks. Puts hand to head…..and thinks again.
Look, if anyone was stupid…. EVERYONE knew this. So why was Biden allowed to stand for a second term? Why? Oh, there was no-one else. Well, shame on you, party high-ups. Why wasn’t a suitable candidate being groomed for high office aeons ago??? Oh, and then very, very late in the day it became obvious that Biden was beyond coping with another year, let alone another four years.
And far too late Kamala Harris was thrown into the fray. She is a decent person but not particularly popular and wasn’t given much to do whilst she was the VP to make her popular. That’s usually the way with VPs, and yet in the circumstances she ran a campaign that was good, really good, and she gave some people hope. But. Good isn’t enough and hope isn’t enough, let alone her war cry of ‘joy’.
Actually there was something fundamental that was missing there. And btw, nothing I say is particularly original as I‘ve read everything I can get my hands on and listened to so many podcasts – see below for my sources.
Fundamentally, I put it to you, a huge number of people are not interested in this thing called politics. I am fascinated by politics and, maybe you are too. And so is everyone who is throwing up their hands at the very thought of Trump, and another 4 years of him. And what about all the pundits who have proliferated with all these podcasts? I listen to them and appreciate many of them, but really, you live in another world, you pundit types.
But most people are not fascinated.
They are far more interested in something quite basic: having a life, feeding their children and getting them educated, paying the rent and putting petrol in the car. All paid for by wages that have stagnated over so many years. In other words, the economy.
Yes, the economy, as experienced by so many Americans who are not white-collar workers, who don’t live in (what were) the blue states, or on the coast. These people are not experiencing the economic growth that is happening in the States (which is apparently motoring). Yes, inflation is coming down, but that doesn’t mean things are any cheaper. No, everything, particularly after Covid, is more expensive: gas, food, rent. Everything that ordinary Americans need just to exist, with wages that have hardly increased over many years, who have to scrabble around for the next meal and pay the bills. What did Harris have for them?
And then as some pundits pointed out (I cite some below as my source) first there was this fundamental issue – the economy as experienced by millions, and then there was the froth. Now this is not insignificant froth. Here within the froth lies many issues that are incredibly important:
The potential damage to democracy in America;
electing a known criminal;
electing a sexual predator;
electing a president who will take away women’s rights to own their body;
electing someone who will backtrack on climate change;
and electing a lover of Putin and all dangerous dictators;
electing someone who will take the country into isolationism;
and put on tariffs;
oh and don’t forget gender issues, an issue that is apparently at the forefront of many people voting for Trump.
And finally, (although there are many more important issues and reasons why people vote a certain way – we are talking about millions of voters here) finally there is immigration.
Look, immigration is a problem everywhere. It is in the UK, because here we are talking about so-called illegal immigration. We have people arriving in boats, America has the border.
There is so much that could be said here but immigration, generally, has been made to be seen as a huge problem, when in fact, nations need immigrants to fill jobs, and many businessmen will agree with that. Then again, it has to be acknowledged that parts of South America are emptying and there is a huge problem at the border.
Btw, an aside, Do American see the people who cross that border as desperate and in need of help? Or are they truly seen as Trump sees them – people who eat cats and dogs???
Naturally the problem needs to be solved although that is so easily said rather than done. And the easiest thing to say (rather than asking why is this happening) is ‘we will deport all illegal migrants’ – and that is indeed Trump’s policy. One could ask how this might be done, but we are not as yet hearing details. Anything else I say is speculation, so I will stop there.
So, rather like our Kier Starmer, who was the ‘not-Boris’ candidate, Harris became the ‘not-Trump’ candidate. She didn’t stand for anything on that list. And did that work? Obviously. No.
What I conclude, therefore, is that what is on that list is what the majority of Americans want.
And now I could say, or they think they want. But don’t you see, that’s joining the chorus, of aren’t they……. ……. And fill in whatever derogative words you want or believe is the truth. More about the truth in a moment.
So before I do look at ‘truth’. This was not the fault of Kamala Harris. I said this after the 2016 election, and I say it now – what does the Democratic party stand for?
In the UK there is a definite Left = anti-establishment and the working class type voter. While the Right = the elite and the establishment and the wealthy conservative type of voter. Crudely speaking, that means in the UK the Left/anti-establishment/working class = Labour party, and the Right/elite and the establishment/and the conservative voters = Conservative party. Btw, an aside here. I could say a lot more about the rise of a new party on the Right called Reform, but this is not the time to do it.
And yet in the States are we looking at the (not really) Left as being the Democratic party who instead of representing the working class/middleclass/blue collar workers, seems to represent the elite and the establishment? Those parties and concerts with all those clebs. Next time, Democrats just don’t do it! It’s not a good look and did it achieve a victory? No.
As for the Republican party, in its present form (Right-leaning and favouring the wealthy) is it now actually an anti-establishment party representing the working men and women of America? Yes? With Trump himself, now the disrupter-in chief and the wrecking ball of everything that the US stands for.
It is all so interesting, if it was not so incredibly scary for us all, and not just for America – but as I said I’ll write about what might happen another time, because THE most important issue now is to understand the whys.
Why did over 70 million Americans vote for all the items on the list and more? It is vital to understand that, especially senior Democratic party officials. If they don’t get it, they never will.
I think, above all, Trump has learnt to be a good politician. And don’t forget he’s a great entertainer, he knows what to say, and he said to them (them being these people left behind by the deindustrialisation) I see you. I know you. I understand you. I will change things for you. And I will make American great again.
Look. Trump is loved by many for all that and more. We need to know this and understand this.
An aside now, the title of this blog is the Age of Disruption and Disorder, I could have called it the New Age of Information Disruption, Disorientation and Disorder.
It is very hard to arrive at the truth these days. Trump loves to emphasise that the media is the ‘enemy within’. But the old-fashioned newspapers with their old-fashioned investigative journalists did seek out ‘truth’. And most people used to get their news from newspapers and maybe the television. Nowadays? News is found everywhere. From partisan news broadcasters (we have one now in the UK) to Tic Toc and then Facebook and don’t forget X of course. Yup. X.
I am just about to plunge myself into understanding the huge melange of misinformation that comes from all sorts, including conspiracy theories that are so mind-blowing you might just about cling on to a semblance of reality. Which is what these days?
Don’t worry I will stay sane. But again, I think it is important to understand what a huge, and I do mean huge number of people believe is reality. Now there’s me saying maybe some people are being misled big time – and I need to be careful because I do not want to be this desk-bound warrior from the Left getting all condescending about so many people. Instead, this is about me saying I truly believe we need to understand how the world works and how people see it. More about this in another blog as it’s almost too much to take in.
So at this point, I turn my attention to the UK.
Well of course, nothing like Trump would ever happen here in Blighty! Would it? Actually, let’s be careful about this certainty. And the person who needs to be particularly careful is our new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, who has won a huge mandate from our recent election. However, I predict a second term is not certain, not if he doesn’t hone into poverty. The Winter Fuel payment comes into mind, as does the 2-child cap on Child Benefit. Careful, Starmer. I know ‘growth’ is important and there is little we can do about the years of austerity. Just be careful about this stance you’ve taken – it might be rejected.
OK, the Conservative party has imploded, and he should be safe. But there is another party waiting in the wings, the Reform party, and that party would have got over 90 seats if we had proportional representation.
Furthermore, this is all about understanding the lives of people who are not living in the metropolitan areas of the UK. Trump said to his fellow Americans, drain the swamp, that touched a chord.
We also have a ‘swamp’, namely: Windrush; Grenfell; the contaminated blood scandal; the Post Office Horizon scandal; the broken NHS; the prosecution of blameless carers for bureaucratic mistakes. Are these sorted? Mended? No. The reality is that some people in our island have been badly damaged by these issues and events. And politicians? What have they done? The best interpretation one can take is that they have been slow to do anything.
Do you see how Populism becomes so attractive to some. So let’s not say a Trump could never come along in the UK. Instead let’s be aware of the challenging times we live in – and just maybe learn from the US election?
I have barely touched on so many key issues: X, for example, and its owner, and his influence on people’s thinking; the growth of populism around the world; plus the disorientating world we live in. For the moment, what might happen with Trump is mostly unknown: things might happen and then again, they might not. We might be entering a very dark and dangerous time and then again, we might not. Just let’s ask ourselves again and again, why did so many ordinary people who are not selfish or stupid, just ordinary people, why did they vote for Trump? Let’s work on that.
Penny Kocher 14.11.2024
Sources
I fully acknowledge my debt to several podcasts including:
The Rest is Politics: Rory Stewart, Alistair Campbell plus guests including: Peter Hyman
The Rest is Politics US: Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci
Americast: especially Sarah Smith
And further reading.
Gabriel Gatehouse, The Coming Storm. A Journey into the Heart of the Conspiracy Machine. BBC Books, Penguin Random House, UK 2024
Marie le Conte, The country that went off the deep end. The New European, November 8-13 2024
Matthew D’Ancona, Where the darkness prevails. There is a central explanation for Trumps’ victory – and it’s not a comfortable one. The New European, November 8-13 2024
A very succinct account of not only how and why Trump was elected; but some analyses of the conditions and relationships in America and in the UK. The rise of populism in itself is a revolt against a middle class and professional mindset. I agree Stsrmer has to be wary of this group. For all his reminding the electorate of his “humble beginnings” toolmaker father etc etc. This does not wash unless he does something about poverty. particularly child poverty.
Yes, there are challenging days ahead for the States, particularly with some of the appointments being made.
And Starmer needs to be far more aware of poverty and the hard lives of some people in the UK. Obviously the economy needs to grow, but hardship, that isn’t really being tackled. Rather it seems to be blind spot at the moment. And just look where it gets you if that is not dealt with adequately. So I think we could definitely ask of Labour, what and who does it stand for?
It is a very interesting take on what has happened in America and what could happen here, if politicians don’t pull their socks up, and try to understand properly people’s concerns. I would disagree with Rowena though in that I don’t think it’s entirely about the middle class and professional mindset. I’d qualify that and say it’s about a metropolitan middle class and professional mindset, who will not engage with the rest of the country, especially small businesses who are themselves middle class and who provide lots of jobs. Their existence is precarious. They feel overlooked and undercared for by generations of politicians who support and listen to big business or unions. I can remember Brexit being discussed by my family and others in deepest darkest Derbyshire, and it was with hope that finally they would be supported, to give jobs to others and run their businesses without constant overlapping interference from government and local government agencies. European levels of administration and interference in all areas burgeoned at one point, they overreached. This is not to say that safety concerns should be ignored but that excessive over administrative burden leads to contempt, and from there to resentment and a populist ( which now seems to be a dirty word) blow out. Let’s not be simplistic about this. Let us try to understand the complexities while realising that as metropolitan elites ourselves ( or on the fringes of same), we may not be the best placed to do so. Getting lots of people together to discuss problems leads to better outcomes, and often concerns are the same. As a left leaning member of the educational class based in the South, I’ve had lots of discussions with my right leaning small business-running family, and not all of them amicable. I only hope that, as a small island, we can retain our quirky balance and muddle through as we usually have done.
Ah yes, muddle through – let’s hope Trish.
Actually I found your comment fascinating and I would so like to know whether the small business part of your family found leaving the EU a comfortable process. I’ve read so much about the problems that have arisen from leaving the Single Market and Customs Union – can they export to the EU in the same way? I certainly know that my daughter, who works for a small business that exports over all the world, has been given the job of dealing with the resulting EU paperwork and it is a full-time job where before there was negligible paper-work.
And now of course with the promise of tariffs being put on all US imports is it that we might have to choose to get closer to the EU? Indeed aren’t we being told we now have to choose which way to go – to the US? Or to the EU?
I still believe that leaving the EU was the greatest act of self-harm that this country could have done to itself. And now? We are such small island and actually the EU is our largest market – if politicians were sensible and not ideological or far too aware and afraid of the Right, we should be clambering back to the EU. Sorry that last sentence is just me hoping against hope. But I do think it would be sensible to have better relations with then EU which Starmer seems to be working on – in France anyway.
Just one more thought about the EU – we were such an important part of it. People forget we had power and influence within the EU. We did good in the EU, it is such a shame we, as a nation, didn’t have that more international sense of our role in Europe at the time of the vote.
Enough. But actually I’d love to know what the business part of your family thinks of leaving the EU now and the prospect of Trump and the tariffs.
Thanks Trish – I really appreciated your comment
What you say makes so much sense Penny. Unlike you, I tend to avoid digging into the news and politics too much because I find it depressing and I need to protect my mental health. However, I have feared from the off that the Labour government would find it difficult to hold on to power in 5 years time. They have made some pretty big faux pas in my opinion since being elected and all I see is criticism of how they are making things worse for the workers. People already seem to have forgotten what a complete mess the last lot left us in. Anyway, I will try not to crystal ball gaze too much regarding the UK and, indeed, the States because it’s totally unpredictable and is not something I can change.
The way I do things when I delve deep is to either read something ridiculous after I’ve read something serious (and seriously depressing) or watch reels of dogs being rescued on Facebook – those always restore my faith in humanity.
Sigh – fancy accepting free glasses and clothes! Really!? I know it was nothing in comparison to the Tories and their deep immersion in muddy and corrupt practices but even so they were going to be different. Indeed I’m feeling some wariness as I watch Starmer – early days though, so I will give him some more time.
Thanks so much Sylvia – my advice (no need to take it up) read one serious article then something light-hearted
This is an interesting take on the election. I don’t pretend to understand all of it as I wasn’t as steeped in politics and analysis as you are. I am shocked and saddened by this election. Here in my corner of the world, there were some of us who truly felt hopeful again. But, I think it was, as the old saying goes, a day late and a dollar short. Biden should never have sought a second term. I understand he probably wanted to cement his legacy because our economy is definitely better than it was when he was inaugurated. Of course, that has to be tempered by the fact of Covid 19. The second thing is the Democrats don’t get social media like the Republicans do. The president elect (I don’t use his name) understands all too well how social media works and uses it to his advantage all the time. His message changed to reflect the audience he was facing. The Democrats sought the moral high ground and focused on “Joy.” I am scared to death of what the next few months and years will hold for our country and even for me, personally. I’m even more frightened for my granddaughters as there are already young men proclaiming, “Your body, my property.” The Democrats need to find someone (unfortunately, a young-ish white MAN) and start building him up for the next election (if there ever is another one). The elected man has the Supreme Court in his back pocket (which I never though I’d see the day), and both houses of Congress in his party. He is stocking his cabinet with all manner of horrible people. Many say, “Well, the Senate has to approve those seats.” Hahaha! Do they honestly think they won’t? I truly believe racism and sexism and almost every other -ism is at the root of this election. He has given people with privilege the permission to act as he does and to mock, deride, and, ultimately, devalue anyone who does not confine themselves to his line. I remember when 1984 was just a book and not a possibility. I’m truly afraid.
https://marshainthemiddle.com/
Oh Marsha – what an awful dilemma for so many people in the States. The thing is I really am trying not to denigrate or dismiss all the voters as stupid and ignorant etc etc. I’ve heard (and read about) so many saying these things or putting their heads into their hands in despair and not wanting to know any more – and this being all within the UK! But I sadly think that this think- piece is a little out of date now what with the appointment of so many crackpots!!!!
However, I still think the Democratic party has a lot of work to do. First of all, to understand the current situation and then say – what and who do we stand for? Because I guess a lot of people in the States don’t know the answer to that either! And I do hope they realise that celebrity endorsements don’t work!
Btw, I thought Kamala Harris was a lovely and very decent, intelligent woman, one I would be proud to have had as a President. She did the absolute best she could and well done her. I do hope she has a good life from now on.
Solidarity sister. I’m holding your hand from across the pond ❤️
It has been two weeks now since the election. I was hoping against hope that Harris would win. Harris was so inspiring to so many of us. When I would watch trump at his rallies, as much as I could stand of them, I thought no decent person would vote for such a man. The insults, the outright racism and sexism, the expression of the worst form of toxic masculinity. And yet here we are. I wish I could say that it will be interesting, but I am afraid. I have been staying away from the news , although for the last few years I had become somewhat of a political junkie. I found the analysis of what wrong just too painful. I am hoping, again that word, that not everyone in his party will just kowtow to him. Already he has chosen his staff, for the most part, unqualified, inappropriate and just plain dangerous, to democracy, to those who question him and especially, for me, to the planet. I hope there will be constraints on his power. I can remember how happy I felt in 2021 at Biden’s inauguration. Seeing Trump, the ultimate sore loser fly off in his helicopter, the end of an awful era. But whatever dark forces are at play he is back, with his vow of retribution and destruction of what so many of us hold dear.
I too thought Harris was inspiring and a lovely person. But she came in to the equation far too late. This blog is of course out of date what with the ghastly appointments that have been made. One can only hope that the ratification process might stop a few of them????
I still think that the Democratic party is in a dilemma because (and it may not be so) but it now appears to be the party of the educated and establishment, and that’s everything a lot of people don’t want.
I too share your fear and worry. There are dark forces around us that need to be kept in check through rules and regulations and good leaders. And when those features are absent……
Btw, the only people I don’t understand one iota are the Christians. I wonder what they will be their fate when they get to the Pearly Gates (if they exist, which I don’t believe they do!) for voting for such an evil man (and I don’t use those words lightly). And a man who will wreak havoc amongst the poor and vulnerable in the country he will lead over the next 4 years.
We have to protect ourselves Darby by immersing ourselves in culture, friends and family and all that is good in the world. There is good and we need to be aware of that. it is not dark everywhere – hold on to that.
With much love and solidarity from over the pond ❤️