Another illegal war?

I think it was Harold MacMillan (British PM 1957-63) who, when asked what might knock a government off course, said, ‘Events, dear boy, events.’  And there I was half way through an earnest piece of writing on Ukraine entering its 5^th year of the war and how Zelensky has to control both Putin and his fundamental belief that Ukraine is his to take and Trump’s simplistic belief that Ukraine hand over territory that Putin’s troops has not yet set a single foot, when the news broke.

So, America and Israel have struck at the heart of Iran, and amongst other targets has bombed the headquarters of Iran’s leader and consequently the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead.

Look. No-one would say that the Ayatollah was in any way a good and wise leader for Iran, and that his regime was working for the majority of Iranians, who have suffered greatly through years of sanctions. But this?

Trump has apparently said to Iranians ‘take back your country’. I see, so this is about regime change. Now who has persuaded Trump that regime change in Iran is a good idea, especially as he was voted in as a President who would not engage in forever wars and regime change?  Has he been listening to Netanyahu who has always wanted Iran’s leadership to change?

And who’s to say that this deadly blow to the current leadership and regime might change things for the better and Iran move on to be a lovely quiet country getting on well with its neighbours, especially Israel. And, of course, surely, there is a well worked out long-term plan for what happens now? Yes?

The thing is, America, (and here I am quoting Anthony Scaramucci of The Rest is Politics US) America sucks at regime change.  Think about it. Vietnam, anyone? Iraq? And what about Afghanistan? That worked well did it not, with trillions spent, many, many American personnel and Afghan civilians dead? Oh, and then an ignominious and totally inefficient withdrawal, and the Taliban back in charge.

So, I do not apologise for the use of those words, said by an American, please note. Because does intervention ever work?

Now the thing to consider first is, should this strike on Iran have happened. And, second, is this war legal? Also, what happens next?

For starters, there is no evidence whatsoever that strategic nuclear weapons are being built to reach the States, or that Iran wants to. And note that there were current negotiations going on to bring about agreement between the US and Iran after the bombing in June which, apparently, ‘obliterated’ (Trump’s very own word) their nuclear programme. But now Trump in his address via an 8-minute video on social media warned Iran:

“never to resume their malicious pursuit of nuclear weapons, and we sought repeatedly to make a deal. They wanted to do it. They didn’t want to do it. Again they wanted to do it. They didn’t want to do it.  They didn’t know what was happening. They just wanted to practice evil. But Iran refused. Just as it has for decades and decades.” (source: Heather Cox Richardson, see below for reference)

Funny that. What about the fact that The International Atomic Energy Agency recently found no evidence that Iran was working on nuclear weapons or that the Washington Post reported US intelligence as believing it is unlikely that the US faced a threat of nuclear weapon reaching them?  So, the belief that nuclear weapons could reach the US from Iran is just unfounded. Gosh, doesn’t that sound familiar? Was it not the excuse used by Bush to invade Iraq, that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction?

Furthermore, the notion that Iran has refused a deal is false.  There was a nuclear deal agreed by Iran, set up by Obama, in 2015. Obviously, as Trump cannot abide anything to do with Obama, Trump withdrew the States from that deal in 2018. And that, dear reader, is a pity, as it was working well.

And the legality of Trump’s actions? I thought the Constitution said that only Congress has the power to declare war? Dear American friends who read this, you now have a dictator in the White House who just does what he pleases. Note also that this act of war violates the charter of the UN, which says that nation states should never attack other nation states unless they are under imminent threat, which America is absolutely not.

Hence, the bombing by Israel and the States of Iran that has led to the death of the Iran’s long-term leader should both never have happened and is illegal.

So what now? Iran has not folded into supplication before Trump and Netanyahu, instead it has struck back at US bases in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. High end hotels in Dubai have also been hit. Israel has not gone untouched and sadly I read in my news timeline that Kuwait has shot down 3 US planes – US personnel will not escape from this either.

I write after 3 days of this act of war, and we could continue asking why, and we could supply some easy answers: it’s a distraction from Trump’s dire popularity ratings, it’s the rising  cost of living in the States, and above all, it’s the Epstein files. Ah yes, Operation Epic Fury. What about Operation Epstein Distraction?

The thing is, the entire region has always been a tinder box, and I do doubt that Trump and his team have thought this through.  This is markedly similar to the ghastly 2003 invasion of Iraq by Bush and Blair. The same hubris, the same justifications, the same reasoning and thinking with the added Orwellian-speak that Trump has in his belief that War brings Peace (it’s there in his 8-minute speech) and that the US can control other nations, just because.

And note that Trump has said to Iranians, your time has come, take that opportunity. “This will be probably your only chance for generations”. While the regime has to be much weakened (and yes it could fall) this is a reckless invitation to civil war and anarchy, and further suffering for the children, women and all Iranian people. You might remember that George HW Bush made that appeal to Iraqis in the 1991 Gulf war with the result that the Shia Muslim population was slaughtered.

Challenging times, dangerous times. Very dangerous times.

Penny Kocher, 2 March 2026

Further reading:

Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American. February 28, 2026. This is a newsletter that I would encourage people to read. She is on Substack but you can get  this newsletter straight to your email as well.

Simon Tidsall, A world on edge as Trump bombs Iran and triggers war in the Middle East. There was no need for this.The Guardian, 28 February 2026

Robin Wright, Donald Trump Launches a War of “Epic Fury” on Iran. newyorker.com/news 28 February 2026

Rory Stewart, Gerald Knaus, Can Intervention Work? WW. Norton & Co, New York, London, 2011.

Rory Stewart, The Prince of the Marshes. Harcourt, Inc. 2006. This book is about Stewart’s time spent in Iraq after the war. It shows very clearly how little the Western world knows of the Middle East and how easy post-war solutions are, in reality, useless when applied to war-torn countries.