A week is a long time in politics

Well, that was quick! They say a week is a long time in politics, what about less than a week or a couple of days or even hours. Was it only last Monday I posted that Truss would probably go but wasn’t sure when. Maybe until the end of the month when the new Chancellor was going to unveil the details of his budget? But she was so obviously unhinged, so incompetent that it wasn’t her budget as such that led to her being turfed out (although that did matter hugely) but what should have been a relatively simple vote on fracking turned into a total shambles with various Conservative MPs being shoved and manhandled down the ‘lobby’. (We have the most antediluvian way of doing things in Westminster.) The chaos was such that one long-standing Conservative type (Sir Charles Walker) in an interview was so angry he called the Cabinet talentless and the government ‘an absolute disgrace’.

That was Wednesday, after PMQs when Truss had said, ‘I’m a fighter not a quitter’. Now don’t you think that sounds a rather last minute, dying duck sort of phrase? Anyway, I knew it was all up for Liz, when next morning I heard that Sir Graham Brady, the leading light of the 1922 Committee (don’t ask, just know it’s a committee with weird traditions – banging desks for example) was ‘meeting’ with Liz Truss at No 10. Now that means curtains, as despite its oddness, when that committee says a PM has to go, they go. When the Deputy Prime Minister, Therese Coffey, rocked up shortly after, along with the Party Chairman, that was it.  And then at 1.0pm the podium appeared outside No 10, with Liz Truss a few minutes later announcing her resignation – all 90 seconds of it. This time, no bravado like Johnson (more about him in a min’) hasta la vista and all that, or tears like Theresa May, no apologies, for trashing the economy and ruining our lives, no contrition, or sadness like many of the others who have gone from No 10.  No, just flatness and that weird little smile. She is an odd one, that Liz, you do wonder, what’s going on there.

So now what?

Well, the 1922 Committee has come up with a very shortened version of anointing a new PM. Names must in by Monday morning and each candidate must gather 100 nominations, so that means only three at the most will make it. On the same day the MPs will vote that afternoon and if there are two left standing, like for instance, Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordant (the only one so far to say she is in) they hope that the person who is second will just drop out, thus avoiding the membership; the ones that voted for Liz Truss against the wishes of the MPs.

However.

An extraordinary situation is arising. Boris Johnson is attempting a come-back. That man thinks he can garner sufficient support to be in the mix on Monday. Yikes, so if he came second say, to Rishi Sunak, the vote would then be put to the members, because, dear reader, would they be able to negotiate the dropping out of one of them? No.  And that, dear, dear reader, is like giving matches to someone who set light to the kitchen. Boris would win the membership vote, there’s no doubt about that, the Conservative members love him.

However.

I understand (from listening to pundits on the radio this morning) that Boris (who is back from serving his constituents in the Dominican Republic, his third holiday since he resigned) may not gather the 100 nominations. He is apparently wobbling at around the 50 mark. Well, all I can say, is that if he gets the 100 nominations, he is in, and the Conservative party is out, it will be toast. It will split that party asunder.

People have short memories.

I have been on Twitter (where it’s all happening) and have listened to the radio and podcasts and watched the news, which I usually try to avoid, but this is so addictive. And unbelievably, over and over again, one hears, ‘bring Boris back’, and ‘he made mistakes, he’s owned up to them, but you know, he was good, wasn’t he?’ And worst of all, ‘ I like him, he’s funny’. Geez, politics is not about being a comedian.

And mistakes? He made a few.

I know you don’t need reminding, nevertheless, I’m going to set down a few of those ‘mistakes’.

First of all, when I hear people talking about these mistakes they usually cite the parties he’s had while everyone else was knuckling down to behaving well during lockdown, as in adhering to the rules – that he made. Look, parties, were all about his libertarian, have a good time personality and they pale into insignificance in comparison to the mistakes that really matter (that no-one mentions in these interviews) which are decisions he made which led to multiple deaths.

Covid-19

Take for instance his not turning up for five of the COBRA meetings on Covid, he was elsewhere. Then the decisions that came rather too late to put us all into the first lockdown and then nearly every other lockdown we had was too little and too late causing tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths. (See BMJ reference).

The scandal of the unprotected care and nursing homes

And the discharging of many older patients from hospital back to their care homes already suffering from Covid. How many deaths did that cause – thousands and thousands of deaths

The fast tracking of friends and associates

See a previous blog post on this, but what about the ‘VIP lanes’ that catapulted party doners and friends to getting contracts to provide PPE, shoddily provided in the main.

The mind-boggling sums spent on Track and Trace

Also, in that post I tracked the money spent on Track and Trace – the sums are mind-blowing. You could build several aircraft carriers or build a huge number of hospitals. But no, someone with no competence, and a history of failure, with no Public Health experience was appointed to lead on this. Has anyone really traced where that tax-payers money, billions of it, went? I think not.

The lies and the parties

Is it too much to say lying is Johnson’s default mode. I don’t think it is. Basically, he never ever realised he was at these parties – he would say and did! And then the holidays, the wallpaper, all provided by rich doners and kind of absent-mindedly forgotten or more like hidden by Johnson from view.

And don’t forget the incompetence

Don’t start me on Brexit and the deal which is absolutely the worst one we could possibly get.

The man is a shambles both in his skills as a leader of our country and in his appearance. But while I don’t see him as any kind of intellectual, or wise, or having any sense of duty or fealty towards our country, he is clever in a wily, how-can-I-hold-on-to-power way, do read the post I wrote about the Six Acts that were passed in April.

And don’t forget, the way he looks is all part of his Etonian confidence. He can look like a clown with a toddler haircut because really it gives the impression that doesn’t matter to him at all – but it is deliberate ploy.

As I write the rumour mill on Twitter says that the man has his 100 nominations. Events, events, they move at speed.

The Tory party should have Richi Sunak to lead them, and the nation, but if we get Boris Johnson the party will be toast. And I shall write why if or when that happens as the Conservatives party has changed beyond all recognition since Thatcher’s time. Just like the Labour party it is riven with factions.  While Labour seems to have most of its factions under control now, the Conservatives are very, very divided and what Johnson is not, is the unity candidate.

It really is up to the Conservative MPs, if they back him to take over from Liz Truss, and the membership vote him in, the proverbial will really hit the fan.

I do hope that rumour is wrong.

We live in interesting times.

Penny Kocher, 22^nd October 2022

Further reading:

Simon Kuper, Chums. How a Tiny Caste of Oxford Tories Took Over the UK. Profile Books Ltd. 2022

BMJ. The UK’s response to Covid-19, ‘too little, too late, too flawed’. 15.05.2020

House of Commons Library. Coronavirus: A history of English lockdown laws

Esther Addley, Fines, lies and chaos: a reminder of Boris Johnson’s time as PM. The Guardian, 21.10. 2022